OPEC revises high estimate of world oil demand

OPEC has revised upwards its estimate of world oil demand for this year to 98.85 million barrels a day, up 1.7 percent, and predicts that "geopolitical" factors will continue to have an "impact" on offer.

The withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran, among other factors, "points to growing uncertainty", indicates the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), released in Vienna.

Analysts at the energy group also warn that "potentially disruptive concerns have increased", which could hit world oil supplies at a time when the barrel has been at its highest since the end of 2014.

The new estimate of world oil consumption in 2018 (98.85 million barrels per day) represents an increase of 1.65 million barrels per day (1.7 percent) compared to 2017 and a revision in increase of 150,000 barrels per day compared to the estimate a month ago.

The calculations of this solid demand are based on the good prospects of the world economy, with growth that OPEC predicts will be 3.8 percent this year.

Both "geopolitical concerns" and "robust demand and reduced supply from OPEC, Russia and nine other independent producers pushed up oil prices, the report recalls.

OPEC benchmark oil rose in April to an average of US$68.43 per barrel, 7.3 percent more (US$4.67) than the March average, and continued to rise in May, in last Thursday for amounts over $74 for the first time in the last three and a half years.

In terms of supply, the April supply of the 14 OPEC partners was 31.9 million barrels per day, with a slight increase of 12,100 barrels per day compared to the previous month, according to the document.

Venezuela is the partner that most reduced extraction last month, with a drop of 41,700 barrels per day, followed by Gabon (9300 barrels per day), Nigeria (8300 barrels per day), Angola (7800 barrels per day ), Equatorial Guinea (6800 barrels per day), Qatar (4300 barrels per day) and Iraq (700 barrels per day).

However, these declines were offset by increases in Saudi Arabia (46,500 barrels a day), Algeria (17,700 barrels a day), Iran (10,000 barrels a day), Libya (6900 barrels a day), the United Arab Emirates (6100 barrels per day), Ecuador (3100 barrels per day) and Kuwait (800 barrels per day).

The total number of joint production remains below the maximum of 32.5 million barrels per day set in 2016, due to a pact with other producers that assumes the withdrawal from the market of 1.8 million barrels per day from January 2017.

The supply cut, in effect until December 31st (although OPEC and its allies are planning to review the situation again at a meeting scheduled for June 22nd in Vienna) has contributed to diminishing oil reserves.


According to the report, these commercial oil reserves in industrialized countries fell in March by 12.7 million barrels per day, to 2,829 million barrels per day, a level slightly above, by 9 million barrels, the average of the last five years old.

The report forecasts an increase in "non-OPEC production" for 2018 to 59.62 million barrels per day, 1.72 million barrels per day more than in 2017 and 10,000 more barrels per day than previously estimated. one month.

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